Inflation:
SoSh (Somali Shilling)-using areas: Consumer Price Index (CPI) changed mildly (1-6%) in June 2019. Compared to the five-year average (2014-2018), CPI declined mildly (6%) in southern Somalia but increased moderately (15%) in the northeast, attributable to higher current prices of commodities in the Cost of Minimum Expenditure Basket (CMB).
SISh (Somaliland Shilling)-using areas: CPI remained relatively stable during June 2019 but increased by 10 percent compared to the five-year average.
Exchange rate:
SoSh-using areas: The exchange rate between SoSh and the United States Dollar (USD) remained relatively stable in most regions of the country in June 2019. Compared to the five-year average, SoSh depreciation (9-31%) in all regions of the country with the highest depreciation recorded in the northeast, mainly due to increased printing of the local currency over the past two years.
SISh-using areas: The exchange ragte begtween SlSH and USD was stable in June 2019 but depreciated mildly (3%) compared to the five-year average.
Local cereal (white maize, red sorghum and white sorghum) prices remained relatively stable or exhibited mild (≤10%) monthly changes (mostly increases) in June 2019 in most parts of the country. This primarily reflects dwindling supply of cereal stocks from below average 2018 Deyr season and low expectations about the forthcoming 2019 Gu season cereal harvest. Compared to the five-year average, June 2019 local cereal prices are higher in most of the northern regions but still lower in southern regions.
Prices of imported food (rice, sugar, vegetable oil, wheat flour) mostly exhibited relative stability or mild monthly changes (± 10%) in local currency terms in June 2019 in most regions of Somalia.
Compared to five-year average, prices of most food imports changed at mild rates in most parts of the country, with the exception of northeast regions where prices increased moderately (10-17%) due to depreciation of the local currency against the U.S.
Dollar.
Livestock prices for local quality goat and camel mostly exhibited mild monthly changes (1-6%) in June 2019 in most regions of the country. Comparison with the five-year average indicates moderately high camel and goat prices for June 2019 in most regions of the country (7-33%). During the month of June, milk prices decreases at mild to moderate rates (4-25%) in most regions due to increased supply that followed improved availability of pasture and water. Similarly, compared to the five-year average, milk prices (camel and cattle) mostly exhibited mild (≤10%) to high (>25%) decreases in most regions of the country. Exception is northwest region where fresh milk prices increased (by 3- 8%).
Labor (unskilled) wages exhibited a mixed pattern in June 2019 in most regions of Somalia. Mild monthly declines were recorded in most regions of the country (1% decline in Sorghum Belt, 3% decline in Shabelle Valley and Northwest; and 6% decline Juba Valley). Compared to the five-year average, June 2019 labor wages are higher (9-32%) in most regions of the country, except in Lower Shabelle, Middle Juba and Banadir (Mogadishu) where wage rates exhibited moderate decreases (5-36%) due to increased labor competition in recent years in the major urban centers of these regions.
Terms of Trade (ToT) between daily labor wage and cereals either remained relatively stable or changed mildly (± 1-2kgs/daily wage) in most regions of the country in June 2019. Similarly, compared to the five-year average (2014-2018), the labor wage to cereals ToT remained relatively stable or increased mildly in most regions of the country, except in Banadir (Mogadishu-Bakara) where ToT decreased (by 3kgs/daily) due to a decline in labor wage rates.
The ToT between local quality goat and cereals exhibited mild monthly changes (≤ ± 10%) in most regions of the country. Five-year average comparisons indicate a higher ToT (9-49%) between goat and cereal in most regions due to increases in goat prices and/or lower cereal prices in June 2019.
