The Somalia government has for the third time postponed presidential elections in South West State amid growing tensions and rigging claims.
The crucial election earlier set for December 5 has now been postponed to December 19. This is the third time the election has been postponed twice in November and now once in December.
The election is a two horse race pitting Mukhtar Robow aka Abu Mansur, former al-Shabaab Deputy Commander and spokesman, who quit the militant group against Somalia’s former minister Abdiaziz Hassan aka Laftagareen. The government backs the latter.
Insiders say the government wants to unleash two other candidates in their camp to stand with the above two clear favourites in the first round of voting and then announce their resignation and support Laftagareen in a bid to sway support for him.
However, Somalia’s National Assembly Speaker Mohamed Mursal, who hails from South West State, deferred with President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo and Prime Minister Hassan Ali Kheyre over plans to block the people’s choice, Mukhtar Robow, from vying.
VOTE RIGGING
In a recent meeting with President Farmaajo and PM Kheyre, Speaker Mursal is said to have warned against plans to bar Robow from contesting due to his past involvement with al Shabaab, arguing he was cleared to run for the presidency and that its his constitutional right to do so. He also warned of clear government support to some of the candidates.
His views seem to be contradict the government, which mainatains Robow should not stand and are putting measures to lock him out to give their candidate, Laftagareen, a smooth victory.
The Speaker also questioned a government decision to send 150 heavily armed elite soldiers from Mogadishu to Baidoa on November 30, arguing South West State already has more than enough personell to safeguard the election.
The Coalition for Change, which has thrown its weight behind Robow, on Monday issued a statement after the polls were postponed.
The group said it fears the government is planning to rig because the new date is not favourable for international observers as most of them will then have left Somalia for the end of the year festivities.
SINISTER MOTIVE
The move to deploy 150 elite Somali forces to Baidoa is said to be a plan to physically block Robow from accessing the election venue on Election Day. If this sinister motive succeeds, locals fear a public backlash and possible armed confrontation with local security personnel.
The newly deployed heavily armed forces presence in Baidoa is already causing anxiety amongst the 8,000 South West State police and around the 2,000 Somalia National Army troops. Many of the 10,000 forces are believed to back Robow’s bid.
Robow, who hails from the Leysan sub-clan, is viewed by many locals as less corrupt and one who can guarantee security of the region because he knows how al Shabaab operates. He is seen as the best bet to reclaim areas still controlled by the militants and also stop the unabated wave of al Shabaab violence in the region.
Laftagareen is from the Xariin sub-clan but his mother is from the Darod clan, Marehan sub-clan, same as President Farmaajo, who is said to his maternal uncle. He is viewed as an outsider imposed on them simply because he will be a yes man for the government.
TWO PRESIDENTS
There are likely to be two scenarios if the government succeeds in imposing Laftagareen as president. The first is that there is a likelihood of having two Presidents.
One President for the government, who will be holed up in the Presidential Palace in the outskirts of the city of Baidoa and facing massive protests just like what happened in Kenya after last year’s controversial elections.
The other one will the People’s President, who live in the city and enjoys massive support of the people and majority of the local forces not only in the capital Baidoa but the entire South West State.
The second possibility is that of renewed clan violence in Baidoa and the rest of the South West Federal State. This is likely to benefit al Shabaab and further derail the peace process that has taken years to rebuild and used millions of dollars in donor funding.
The 150 elite soldiers deployed to Baidoa are likely to ignite violence during or after the election. These forces seem prepared for any eventualities because they are armed to the tooth with some really heavy calibre machine guns. The kind that can pierce through a wall: Talk of 30 BKM and 2 Dishka.
The international community has called for calmness and the need to safeguard the hard-earned peace. But who is listening? The government is said to be dishing out thousands of dollars to sway the election in their favour and the opposition seems to be resolute in their quest to win the top seat.
WHOSE WHO?
An elder in Baidoa summed up the entire matter when asked about the two choices.
“It is better the devil you know than the angel you don’t know. We know Mukhtar Robow. He used to be a wanted terrorist but he repented and we forgave him. He now wants to repay back to society by bringing peace and development. He is the right leader because he is not corrupt. Corruption is killing us.”
What about Laftagareen?
“He is unknown here. I understand he used to be a minister. I don’t really know what he has ever achieved as a minister. We cannot risk electing someone with no development record and no one can impose such a leader on us.”
The people have spoken but the verdict is still open. Who will emerge victorious? We wait and see.
Come what may, Soomal, will closely be monitoring the election and will bring you the unreported angles and the nitty-gritty’s of how everything went, including the good, the bad and the ugly.
